As a mortgage rate shopper in Cincinnati, geopolitics can either be your dream or your nightmare.

Lately, it’s been the former.

Mortgage Rates React To Politics

The mortgage market is a living, breathing organism, susceptible to outside influence.

Some influences are easy for which to prepare.  We call them “calendared” events.  Things like the release of Existing Home Sales data, jobs numbers or an FOMC meeting — these are events we know are coming and for which we can devise a rate lock strategy.

It’s the non-calendared events, however, that can throw the markets for a loop.  You can’t make a plan for something if you don’t know it’s coming.  You can only hope the market moves in your favor.

Right now, we’re in the midst of a 7-week, non-calendared event.

• Late-March : Greece debt problems start to surface
• Early-April : Eyjafjallajokull erupts in Iceland
• Mid-April : Greece debt problems worsen
• Late-April : Civil unrest in Greece and PIIGS contagion fears
• Early-May : Greece contagion spreads to Eurozone

And then today, North Korea is threatening military action against South Korea.

Markets can’t prepare for non-calendared events like they can a jobs report.  For example, if the jobs report is stronger-than-expected, we know that mortgage rates will rise. If the jobs report is worse-than-expected, we know that mortgage rates will fall.

With geopolitical happenings, on the other hand, we often have no basis.  Markets react on emotion rather than fact and it makes for a wild, rickety roller-coaster ride. Mortgage rates end up changing multiple times per day, and make big movements at a time.

North Korea + Eurozone = The Lowest Mortgage Rates Ever

Thankfully for rate shoppers, geopolitics have been pushing mortgage rates down. Way down.

As of the time of posting, 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rates have moved lower on the day and now successfully pushed through to their lowest levels of all-time.

Let’s say it again : Of all time.

Now, this isn’t true for all loans, of course. We’re only talking about conforming mortgages.  Mortgage rates on many jumbo and super-jumbo loans are actually getting worse.  The same is true for certain portfolio products.  This is because mortgage rates on these products is not based on the mortgage-backed securities market — they’re based on bank-risk and bank-risk is growing.

Seriously — Make Time To Get Yourself A Rate Quote

The problem with markets run by fear is that fear can quickly turn to greed.  And when it does, low mortgage rates start to go away.  Get in touch with your loan officer right away and find out if refinancing is an option.

If you can save some cash each month plus find a reasonable break-even point on your loan’s costs-vs-savings, get it done. The math is favorable right now and you’ve got North Korea to thank for it.

For getting low rates:

1. Try not to take too long in the “shopping” process. Rates can rise by 1/4 percent at a time while you’re jockeying to save an eighth.  You’ll lose in the end.
2. Try to call a loan officer directly and not the call center number on your statement.

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Look around.  Home prices are still low (all things relative) and mortgage rates are ridiculous. It’s no surprise that home affordability is high right now.

Home Affordability Hits All-Time Highs

It wasn’t supposed to be like this.  Housing was supposed to have recovered and mortgage rates were supposed to have risen.  But they haven’t.  And it’s creating an opening for today’s buyers.

According to the Home Opportunity Index, a quarterly report joint published by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo, more than 72 percent of all new and existing homes sold between January-March 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income.

It’s the second highest reading in the survey’s history.

Where Are Homes Most (And Least) Affordable?

Bay City, Michigan topped the 2010 First Quarter affordability list. 98.7% of homes sold there were affordable for families earning the area’s median income. The rest of the Most Affordable are similarly “small towns”.

For bigger-city living, Indianapolis clocked in at the top.  95% of all homes sold in Indianapolis are affordable to the city’s median income earners.

Other noteworthy rankings include:

At the bottom of the affordability list is the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ region.  Just 20.9% of homes are affordable to families earning the local median income.

The affordability rankings of all 225 metro areas are available on the NAHB website. See where your town ranks and remember — even if your city is near the bottom of the list, relative, affordability is very, very high.

Beware: Affordability Is Often Fleeting

Homes are affordable because of the unique state of the economy right now.  In other words, it won’t likely last.

Home values are recovering in many markets and mortgage rates can’t stay this low forever. It’s unnatural. All things equal, buying a home may never come this cheap again.

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Life is getting difficult for home buyers and rate shoppers.  Since the start of April, mortgage lenders are averaging 2.25 rate sheets per day.

Mortgage Rate Velocity — the pace of rate sheet change — is as high as it’s been in a year.

What Is A Mortgage Rate Sheet?

A rate sheet is a mortgage bank’s “menu”. It lists rate-and-points combinations for every loan product available. Some rate sheets are just a page; others go 10 pages or more.  Most are now electronic.

Rate sheets show the “right now” pricing on products including:

• 30-year, 20-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages
• Short-term ARMs like 1-year and 3-year products
• Long-term ARMs like 5-year, 7-year and 10-year products
• Jumbo and super jumbo mortgages
• The complete line of FHA and VA mortgages
• Loans for condotels and non-warrantable condos

Rate sheets change with the market and, lately, markets have been wild.

Mortgage Rates Are Changing Every 3 Hours, On Average

In January, mortgage rates changed every 6 hours.  Since late-March, however, they’ve changed every 3 hours.

That’s two times as fast.  There’s no “calling you back in the afternoon” or “thinking about it overnight” in a market like this.  Unless you’re watching real-time market updates, it’s pretty much a guarantee you’ll get burned.

Want that rate you were just quoted? You better lock it right this second.

It’s Going To Get Even Worse For Rate Shoppers

The pace of change in April is just the beginning. By June, today’s Mortgage Rate Velocity will be look tame; as a turtle to a hare.

The Fed is officially gone from the mortgage market and its absence has left markets in doubt.  The Fed was a stabilizer, if nothing else, and with it gone, there’s questions about whether investors will step up to fill the demand void. Especially because stock markets are throwing better returns and debt concerns are easing around the world.

Mortgage bonds fared well in 2009 because the world was on fire. This summer, that won’t be the case. Mortgage Rate Velocity will eclipse its all-time highs.

Shield Yourself From Mortgage Rate Velocity

As a loan officer, I track mortgage data in real-time, and summarize it online to Twitter and occasionally to Facebook. I send alerts to my audience before new rate sheets come out so everyone can stay ahead of the market.

You need to be plugged in. If you manage them right, my alerts should save you tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage. It’d be silly not to pay attention, really.

However, being “alert” is only one part of being ready. You must also have a loan application on file with your lender.

Banks can’t give rate locks without full applications.

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Credit scoring is a huge part of the mortgage world.

A given credit score can mean the difference between a 5 percent rate and a 6 percent rate; a conventional mortgage and an FHA mortgage; an underwriting approval and an underwriting denial.

And yet, there’s a persistent belief among Americans that “having your credit checked” is a bad thing.

In some instances, yes. In most instances, though, no.

See, not all credit applications are created equal. At least, not in the eyes of the bureaus.

A formal credit pull by a mortgage company is treated differently from applying to get 10% off at Target.  To understand why, let’s start with some credit scoring basics.

Credit Inquiries Are A Formal Process

A “credit inquiry” is a formal request to review a person’s credit report.

Credit inquires are grouped with other traits into a credit-scoring category called “New Credit”. New Credit represents 10 percent a person’s complete credit score.  On the scale of 300-850, therefore, credit inquiries represent a tiny portion of a maximum of 85 points to a FICO.

There are many times of credit inquiries, but really only 4 of the set can impact a person’s credit score:

1. A credit check for a mortgage loan
2. A credit check for an auto loan
3. A credit check for a credit card application
4. A credit check for a store credit card, or consumer loan

These 4 types are singled out because, in each case, the inquiry is made by the applicant in order to get access to more debt.  Because extra debt increases the probability of default, credit inquiries can sometimes foreshadow trouble.

Even then, however, the risk of default varies by application type.

For example, credit card applications can be more damaging to a credit score than a mortgage application.  This is because credit card debts tend to revolve higher over time versus a mortgage which eventually pays down to $0.

So, all things equal, a credit card application will harm your credit score more than an application for a home loan.

A Credit Inquiry Lowers Your FICO By 5 Points

When compared to the other credit scoring elements, Credit Inquiries is a relative nothing.

In the official FICO scoring model, Payment History and Credit Utilization account for 65% of a score, combined, and the amount of time during which you’ve had credit to your name accounts for 15%.  These three areas are over-weighted because the bureaus are more concerned with what you’ve already done with your credit versus what you might do with more of it.

Your credit past is the best clue to your credit future and it’s one of two reasons why it’s okay to give your social security number to as many lenders as you want. The impact of a credit inquiry is tiny next to the value of being a Model Credit Citizen.

A mortgage credit inquiry is estimated to lower a credit score by just 5 points.

Unfortunately, we’ll never know for sure because the very act of examining the credit score causes it to move. In Physics, this is called the Heisenberg Principle.  On MTV, it’s called The Jersey Shore Syndrome.  Put a camera on something, and it changes.

The Credit Bureaus Don’t Hit Your FICO Twice

The second reason you should shop around with lenders is that — unlike applying for multiple credit cards — applying for multiple mortgages won’t count as multiple, consumer-initiated inquiries. This is a common thing.

You might apply for 5 credit cards and use them all. You’re not going to be approved for 5 mortgages.

As such, the credit bureaus have made it formal policy to permit “rate shopping”.  Talk to as many lenders as you want in a 14-day time frame; have your credit checked as often as you’d like; compare rates and fees.  All of the inquiries will be lumped into a single application.

It’s good for you and it’s good for the bureaus. Your credit scores stay high and TransUnion, Equifax and Experian collect more fees from the banks.

Advice From The Credit Bureaus On Getting Low Rates

To promote rate shopping and to lessen The Fear of Credit Inquiry, the people behind the FICO brand spell out for you the best way to get the best mortgage rates possible:

1. If you want the best rate, you should “shop around”
2. Limit rate shopping to 14-day timespan to keep your credit scores high
3. Mortgage lenders can’t give accurate rate quotes without a credit score so give up your social security number

Metaphorically, not letting your lender see your FICO is like not letting your doctor check your blood pressure. You’ll get a diagnosis when the appointment is over — it just might not be the right one.

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